11 May Elections in Serbia - Q & A for Zaman Turkish newspapers

07.05.2008

1- It is very clear that Serbia has been going through a very tough and painful process. What is the importance of these elections for Serbia and its future?

The process has been painful for Serbia but "what doesn't kill you, makes you stronger". Even though all eyes are set on the elections now with a rather polarized political air, I don't think that the elections represent a major turning point for Serbia. Most political parties have a pro-European agenda combined with the fight for respect of international law in the Kosovo issue. There are differences in approach but most of them boil down to the same agenda- "both the EU & Kosovo".

2- Is this the final war between the pro-western reformers and nationalists after the presidential elections?

I'd say that the political encounters between democratic reformers (not only pro-western ones) and conservatives will go on in the future as in any other country. Branding conservatives and traditionalists as "nationalists" is quite popular but not necessarily the most constructive approach that media may take in shaping a better European future for the Balkan region.

3- How do you evaluate the role of EU in these elections? Will EU's SAA agreement step help reformers or play opposite role and contribute to nationalists votes?

Serbia is European - historically, culturally, and geographically. Naturally, the EU's SAA will have a positive effect on the pro-EU voting potentials in Serbia (more than 60% of the population). In addition, by outlining the win-win EU path for the country and getting closer to EU membership, the EU comes to grips with nationalism too. Nationalism is sparked, however, by the disrespect of international law and undermining the value of Kosovo for the Serbs.

4- How will declaration of the independence of Kosova affect the elections?  Has it been used as an important factor during the campaign? How? By whom?
Kosovo is for the Serbs what is Mohammed for Turkey or any other majority Muslim country. Any attempt to chop off Kosovo from Serbia is not "only" seen symbolically as a Danish cartoon, but represents a severe breach of international law as well.

It is understandable that politicians drive agendas over such an important issue in support of their domestic politics to gain power. Conservatives are overly euro-critical due to recognition of Kosovo independence by certain EU countries. Reformers are excessively enthusiastic about the EU's neutral stance over Kosovo in the SAA. It might be good to separate the needs of these parties, and to see what is best for the country and the region as a whole.

There is no common EU policy regarding Kosovo's unilateral independence declaration. Some EU countries including Romania, Cyprus and Spain openly announced that they will never recognize Kosovo. More media are realizing and discussing the complexity of this issue. They search for a win-win formula rather than remaining stuck in the old-fashioned black-white, win-lose games where one side is the winner and the other loses all. In these cases actually all used to be losers. That's why there are no more such games.
 
5- Who will win? What is the possibility of a nationalist victory in elections? What kind of Serbia and Serbian politics will we witness if nationalists win the elections?  How can this affect Serbia's relations with neighbours, Kosovo and the EU?

The media is increasingly aware of the importance of the same win-win formula here too. That this is the only alternative to the dead-end lose-lose approach. Thus you see e.g. quite a balanced report on the Serbian Radical Party by Reuters.

While polls currently predict a narrow victory for the radicals, they won't be able to create a government alone. If they join forces with Prime Minister Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia- the country could create closer ties with Russia and all other countries supporting international law in the Kosovo case, while those EU neighbours who have recognized Kosovo might not be Serbia's first priority. Yet, coalition between the Democratic Party of Serbia and Tadic's Democratic Party is not an unlikely outcome, as both parties, despite differences fight for the same cause- Kosovo together with Serbia, Serbia together with the EU, all for a common future.

I have to make a point here that one can't be a neighbour of one's own house. Kosovo is not independent under any governance either in theory, or in practice (UN- Resolution 1244 of the Security Council is the only valid resolution on this territory, EU- no common EU policy exists regarding Kosovo, Serbia- its constitution among many other documents confirms Serbian sovereignty and territorial integrity over Kosovo). Also in reality, Kosovo has never been more dependent (on the UN, NATO, EU, Serbia), and the main losers of this sophisticated political game are Kosovo Albanians. This reality will hurt for quite some time the ordinary people of Kosovo, Serbia, the whole Balkan region & its neighbour - the EU.

6- How do you evaluate roles of Russia and West in these elections and in general in Serbia ? Constructive or destructive?

Blame game won't help here. In the World Power Exhibition, each country is responsible for its own position. If Serbia had different leaders it would probably stand better chances to use external factors more constructively– be they Russian, US, EU or any other major influence…